Chicago Mercantile Exchange Hurricane Index

From testwiki
Jump to navigation Jump to search

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Hurricane Index (CMEHI) is an index which describes the potential for damage from an Atlantic hurricane in the United States. The CMEHI is used as the basis for trading hurricane futures and options on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).[1] It is very similar to the Hurricane Severity Index, which also factors both size and intensity of a hurricane.[2]

Index calculation

The CMEHI takes as input two variables: the maximum sustained wind speed of a hurricane in miles per hour and the radius to hurricane-force winds of a hurricane in miles (i.e. how far from the center of the hurricane winds of 74 mph or greater are experienced). If the maximum sustained wind speed is denoted by V and the radius to hurricane-force winds is denoted by R then the CMEHI is calculated as follows:

CMEHI=(VV0)3+32(RR0)(VV0)2

where the subscript 0 denotes reference values. For use on the CME, the reference values of 74 mph and 60 miles are used for the maximum sustained wind speed and radius of hurricane-force winds respectively.

Index history and data

The development of the CMEHI was based on work published by Lakshmi Kantha at the Department of Aerospace Studies at the University of Colorado in Boulder, Colorado. Kantha's paper[3] in Eos developed a number of indices based on various characteristics of hurricanes. The ReAdvisory team at the reinsurance broker RK Carvill[4] used the basics of the Kantha paper to develop an index which became the Carvill Hurricane Index (CHI). In 2009, the scale was renamed the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Hurricane Index (CMEHI).[5]

The data for the CMEHI comes from the public advisories issued for named storms by the National Hurricane Center. Specifically, to determine the maximum sustained wind speed, the following verbiage is looked for:

Template:Mono

To determine the radius to hurricane-force winds, the following phrase is looked for:

Template:Mono

For example, Advisory 23A[6] for Hurricane Katrina at 1pm Central daylight time on Sunday, August 28, 2005, gave the maximum sustained wind speed of 175 mph and the radius of hurricane-force winds of 105 miles resulting in a CMEHI value of 27.9.

Data

Public advisories from the National Hurricane Center are archived back to 1998. The table below lists the CMEHI values for all the landfalling hurricanes since 1998 based on the NHC Public Advisories, and uses alternate sources for hurricanes between 1989 and 1998.

CMEHI indices of historical storms (1989 – present)
Name Year Landfall NHC advisory number Windspeed at/near landfall (operational) Radius of hurricane–force winds at/near landfall CMEHI index Ref(s)
Template:Color box Jerry 1989 Texas N/A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 2.3 [7]
Template:Color box Hugo 1989 U.S. Virgin Islands N/A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 14.4 [8]
Template:Color box Hugo 1989 Puerto Rico N/A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 10.9 [8]
Template:Color box Hugo 1989 South Carolina N/A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 19.3 [9]
Template:Color box Andrew 1992 Florida N/A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 9.9 [10]
Template:Color box Erin 1995 Florida N/A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 2.7 [11]
Template:Color box Marilyn 1995 U.S. Virgin Islands N/A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 4.9 [12]
Template:Color box Opal 1995 Florida N/A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 7.4 [13]
Template:Color box Bertha 1996 North Carolina N/A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 8.6 [14]
Template:Color box Fran 1996 North Carolina 44 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 14.3 [15]
Template:Color box Hortense 1996 Puerto Rico N/A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 3.0 [16]
Template:Color box Danny 1997 Louisiana N/A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 1.5 [17]
Template:Color box Bonnie 1998 North Carolina 33 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 7.7 [18]
Template:Color box Earl 1998 Florida 11A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 4.6 [19]
Template:Color box Georges 1998 Puerto Rico 26B bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 8.9 [20]
Template:Color box Georges 1998 Mississippi 52 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 5.1 [21]
Template:Color box Bret 1999 Texas 17A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 7.7 [22]
Template:Color box Floyd 1999 North Carolina 34A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 9.6 [23]
Template:Color box Irene 1999 Florida 10 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 2.1 [24]
Template:Color box Lili 2002 Louisiana 49 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 4.4 [25]
Template:Color box Claudette 2003 Texas 28A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 2.1 [26]
Template:Color box Isabel 2003 North Carolina 49A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 7.7 [27]
Template:Color box Charley 2004 Florida 18 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 10.4 [28]
Template:Color box Frances 2004 Florida 44A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 6.6 [29]
Template:Color box Ivan 2004 Alabama 55B bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 13.5 [30]
Template:Color box Jeanne 2004 Florida 49B bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 8.0 [31]
Template:Color box Dennis 2005 Florida 25B bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 6.9 [32]
Template:Color box Katrina 2005 Florida 9 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 1.4 [33]
Template:Color box Katrina 2005 Louisiana 26A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 19.0 [34]
Template:Color box Rita 2005 Texas 26B bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 9.9 [35]
Template:Color box Wilma 2005 Florida 36 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 11.2 [36]
Template:Color box Humberto 2007 Texas 4 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 1.7 [37]
Template:Color box Dolly 2008 Texas 13A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 3.6 [38]
Template:Color box Gustav 2008 Louisiana 31B bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 7.2 [39]
Template:Color box Ike 2008 Texas 48B bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 9.9 [40]
Template:Color box Irene 2011 Puerto Rico 7 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 1.4 [41]
Template:Color box Irene 2011 North Carolina 28A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 4.5 [42]
Template:Color box Isaac 2012 Louisiana 33 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 3.0 [43]
Template:Color box Arthur 2014 North Carolina 13 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 4.3 [44]
Template:Color box Hermine 2016 Florida 19A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 2.6 [45]
Template:Color box Matthew 2016 South Carolina 42 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 1.6 [46]
Template:Color box Harvey 2017 Texas 23 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 8.5 [47]
Template:Color box Irma 2017 Florida 45A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 11.6 [48]
Template:Color box Maria 2017 Puerto Rico 17 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 15.8 [49]
Template:Color box Nate 2017 Louisiana 14A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 2.8 [50]
Template:Color box Florence 2018 North Carolina 61 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 3.3 [51]
Template:Color box Michael 2018 Florida 16A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 14.1 [52]
Template:Color box Barry 2019 Louisiana 13 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 2.1 [53]
Template:Color box Dorian 2019 North Carolina 52A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 3.5 [54]
Template:Color box Hanna 2020 Texas 12 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 2.9 [55]
Template:Color box Isaias 2020 North Carolina 28 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 2.3 [56]
Template:Color box Laura 2020 Louisiana 29A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 14.5 [57]
Template:Color box Sally 2020 Alabama 21 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 4.9 [58]
Template:Color box Delta 2020 Louisiana Update bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 4.3 [59]
Template:Color box Zeta 2020 Louisiana 17 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 5.2 [60]
Template:Color box Ida 2021 Louisiana 14 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 13.5 [61]
Template:Color box Nicholas 2021 Texas 8A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 1.6 [62]
Template:Color box Fiona 2022 Puerto Rico 17A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 2.5 [63]
Template:Color box Ian 2022 Florida 24A bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 14.1 [64]
Template:Color box Ian 2022 South Carolina 33 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 3.8 [65]
Template:Color box Idalia 2023 Florida 15 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 7.4 [66]
Template:Color box Beryl 2024 Texas 39 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 2.6 [67]
Template:Color box Debby 2024 Florida 12 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 2.0 [68]
Template:Color box Francine 2024 Louisiana 13 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 4.3 [69]
Template:Color box Helene 2024 Florida 15 bgcolor=#Template:Storm colour|Template:Convert Template:Convert 12.1 [70]

Prior to 1998, the data becomes sparse. However, using data from the HURSAT[71] database at NOAA it is possible to construct a set of CMEHI values for storms back to 1983.

Modeled data is available from a number of sources:

Notes

  1. ↑ Template:Cite web
  2. ↑ Template:Cite web
  3. ↑ L. Kantha, "Time to Replace the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale?", Eos, Vol. 87, No. 1, 3 January 2006
  4. ↑ RK Carvill website
  5. ↑ Template:Cite web
  6. ↑ Katrina Advisory 23A
  7. ↑ Template:Cite web
  8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 Template:Cite web
  9. ↑ Template:Cite news
  10. ↑ Template:Cite web
  11. ↑ Template:Cite news
  12. ↑ Template:Cite web
  13. ↑ Template:Cite news
  14. ↑ Template:Cite news
  15. ↑ Template:Cite web
  16. ↑ Template:Cite web
  17. ↑ Template:Cite journal
  18. ↑ Template:Cite web
  19. ↑ Template:Cite web
  20. ↑ Template:Cite web
  21. ↑ Template:Cite web
  22. ↑ Template:Cite web
  23. ↑ Template:Cite web
  24. ↑ Template:Cite web
  25. ↑ Template:Cite web
  26. ↑ Template:Cite web
  27. ↑ Template:Cite web
  28. ↑ Template:Cite web
  29. ↑ Template:Cite web
  30. ↑ Template:Cite web
  31. ↑ Template:Cite web
  32. ↑ Template:Cite web
  33. ↑ Template:Cite web
  34. ↑ Template:Cite web
  35. ↑ Template:Cite web
  36. ↑ Template:Cite web
  37. ↑ Template:Cite web
  38. ↑ Template:Cite web
  39. ↑ Template:Cite web
  40. ↑ Template:Cite web
  41. ↑ Template:Cite web
  42. ↑ Template:Cite web
  43. ↑ Template:Cite web
  44. ↑ Template:Cite web
  45. ↑ Template:Cite web
  46. ↑ Template:Cite web
  47. ↑ Template:Cite web
  48. ↑ Template:Cite web
  49. ↑ Template:Cite web
  50. ↑ Template:Cite web
  51. ↑ Template:Cite web
  52. ↑ Template:Cite web
  53. ↑ Template:Cite web
  54. ↑ Template:Cite web
  55. ↑ Template:Cite web
  56. ↑ Template:Cite web
  57. ↑ Template:Cite web
  58. ↑ Template:Cite web
  59. ↑ Template:Cite web
  60. ↑ Template:Cite web
  61. ↑ Template:Cite web
  62. ↑ Template:Cite web
  63. ↑ Template:Cite web
  64. ↑ Template:Cite web
  65. ↑ Template:Cite web
  66. ↑ Template:Cite web
  67. ↑ Template:Cite web
  68. ↑ Template:Cite web
  69. ↑ Template:Cite web
  70. ↑ Template:Cite web
  71. ↑ Hurricane Satellite
Retrieved from "https://en.wiki.beta.math.wmflabs.org/w/index.php?title=Chicago_Mercantile_Exchange_Hurricane_Index&oldid=25659"